How accurate are analyst price targets?
Based on their 2012 study of more than 11,000 analysts from 41 countries, the overall accuracy of target prices is not very high, averaging around 18% for a three-month horizon and 30% for a 12-month horizon. The study indicated there are some characteristics that indicate an analyst might be a better forecaster.
What is a target price for a stock?
The price target of a stock is the price at which the stock is fairly valued with respect to its historical and projected earnings. Investors can maximize their rates of return by buying and selling stocks when they are trading below and above their price targets, respectively.
How far out are analyst price targets?
Essentially, analyst price targets aim to forecast what a stock might be worth after a certain span of time, usually a year to 18 months. While the hit/miss ratio of these targets is not 100 percent, the majority of forecasts among sell-side analysts meet or exceed the target within 12 months.
What do analyst recommendations mean?
An underperform rating means that the stock of a particular company is destined to do slightly worse than the market average or a benchmark index. Therefore, analysts are recommending that traders stay away from the stock.